Every performance claim on louieauto.com has a source, a model, an attribution range, and the market adjustments we apply to NOT take full credit. This page discloses all of it. Including the results we don't attribute to ourselves.
The $312/unit figure is the simulation-engine median gross per-vehicle-retail uplift: 3.7M+ AI-generated deal simulations, run against 30 years of operator-authored routing/coaching rules, calibrated against NADA/CFPB/Experian national benchmarks. Measured across 1,167+ retail deals in the simulation cohort.
| Component | Mechanism | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Front gross | Lender routing — first-look approval lift | +$84 |
| Reserve | First-look approval lift (tier ladder avoided) | +$147 |
| F&I attach | Product sequencing | +$81 |
| Combined PVR delta | Simulation median, 1,167+ deal cohort | +$312 gross |
Source: simulation.db (sim_runs / sim_scenarios), same engine and cohort cited on /money. Not production DMS exports — LouieAuto is pre-commercial with zero external installations today; these are simulation-derived figures, not customer-measured results.
What this is and isn't: This is an 18-month AI simulation run across 5 virtual dealership models, not a randomized controlled trial and not an external customer study. External customer validation is the next milestone. The methodology is fully disclosed and reproducible — the simulation engine is in simulation/ — but it is not yet independently validated against real paying customers. We say this on every page that cites the $312 figure.
The $312 delta is the total simulation-median gross improvement. We do not claim 100% of that improvement is caused by Louie's routing and coaching logic. We apply a 50–80% attribution range and anchor our published figures at 65% — the midpoint of that range.
Several external factors are modeled into the simulation cohort alongside Louie's own routing and coaching rules, and we don't credit Louie for the share of lift they'd produce on their own:
These factors are partially — not fully — separable from Louie's own contribution inside the model. The 50–80% range represents the modeled bounds: 50% = conservative (most external factors credited, Louie gets only direct-engagement-correlated lift); 80% = ceiling (Louie's AI routing is credited for deals where the AI's lender recommendation was followed and resulted in higher reserve than the prior average). 65% = midpoint for published figures.
| Attribution % | Attributable PVR | Annual / Rooftop (200 units/mo) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% floor | $125/unit | $300K | Aggressive downside — most lift from market |
| 50% conservative | $156/unit | $374K | Conservative bound published in risk tables |
| 65% published | $203/unit | $487K | Midpoint. This is the figure we publish. |
| 80% ceiling | $250/unit | $600K | Upper bound — deals where AI recommendation directly traceable |
| 90% | $281/unit | $674K | Not our claim — shown for reference only |
The following market factors are modeled into the simulation cohort and partially backed out of the attribution model. We are conservative about crediting Louie for tailwinds the model can't isolate as Louie's doing.
| Factor | Period Modeled | Estimated Impact | How We Adjust |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut (−100bps) | H2 2024 | ~+$40–70 PVR via lower payment floor | Backed out of F&I backend attribution |
| Used-vehicle price stabilization | 2024 ongoing | ~+$30–50 front gross from trade normalization | Partially backed out — front gross baseline adjusted |
| Deal-experience growth (simulated) | 18 months | Estimated +5–10% close rate from experience | Applied discount to salesperson-attributed gains |
| Senior F&I archetype added (Q3 2024) | One virtual dealership model only | ~$80–120 PVR modeled for that archetype | That model's F&I gain partially excluded from cohort avg |
The figures below show what the annual operator gross lift looks like across attribution percentages and unit volumes. Every number in LouieAuto's marketing material can be traced to a cell in this table.
Based on $312 gross PVR delta × attribution % × 12 months × unit volume. Does not include service-to-sales conversion value or BDC improvement attribution — those are tracked and disclosed separately on the proof page.
The brain's lender weight calibration is derived from 285,000+ closed-loop lender outcomes — first-look decisions, stip resolutions, funded deal terms, and declined deal patterns — accumulated over 18 months of the simulation engine running synthetic deal archetypes through the 42-lender matrix.
| Data Layer | Source | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Simulated lender decisions | Brain simulation engine (3.7M deal runs × 42 lenders) | 3.7M+ simulations |
| Closed-loop lender weight records | lender_weight_cache table, louieauto.db | 491,848 weight records |
| Weighted active outcome calibration | sync-sims-to-closed-loop.js, nightly 1:30am | 285K+ active signals |
| Intelligence log entries | intelligence_log, louieauto.db | 3.3M+ entries |
Important distinction: The 285K outcome calibration is derived primarily from the simulation engine running against realistic dealer archetypes — not 285K independently funded real deals. The simulation is calibrated against national benchmark data (NADA/CFPB/Experian), not operator production data — the simulation outputs themselves are modeled. This distinction matters for external diligence. We disclose it here and in the diligence FAQ.
The 3.7M+ deal simulation runs are the output of Louie's AI simulation engine running deal archetypes through the 42-lender matrix under varied parameters (FICO tier, LTV, vehicle age, term, market region, lender box changes over time). These are not 3.7M independent customer transactions.
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total simulation runs | 3,674,916 | Simulated deal scenarios run through the lender matrix |
| Unique deal archetypes | 1,167 | Distinct customer/vehicle/term profiles used as seeds |
| Lenders in matrix | 42 | Each archetype × 42 lenders × parameter sweeps = 3.7M total |
| Simulation DB size | 14.2GB | simulation.db — queryable on acquisition |
| Intelligence log entries | 3.3M+ | Patterns learned, signals captured, outcomes logged |
We believe this list matters as much as the proof claims. A platform that tells you what it doesn't own is more trustworthy than one that takes credit for everything that went up in the simulation window.
This is a pre-commercial simulation, not a live deployment. All metrics shown on louieauto.com come from the AI simulation engine run across 5 virtual dealership models — 18 months of validated simulation data (Nov 2024–May 2026) — not from external paying customers. There are zero paying customers and zero external installations at the time of this publication (June 2026). External customer pilots are the stated next milestone, targeted Q4 2026. Metrics labeled "simulation-based" or "modeled" use the simulation engine's outputs — not independently funded real deals from external dealers.
We disclose this on the diligence FAQ, the acquisition page, and the proof page. We do not hide it. The question for a potential acquirer or customer is not whether external validation exists — it doesn't yet — but whether the platform's architecture, lender data, and IP are worth acquiring at the price, given what external validation would likely prove.
All data tables, source files, and the full simulation database are available for review under NDA. Request access at the acquisition page.
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